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Nabiullina also said the budget was a significant factor in Friday's decision. "It looks like today's interest rate hike front-loaded the tightening cycle in response to the fiscal announcements earlier this month," said Liam Peach, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. The central bank's tightening cycle began this summer when inflationary pressure from a tight labour market, strong consumer demand and the budget deficit was compounded by the falling rouble. But the bank set its 2023 key rate range at 15-15.2%, suggesting rates could climb further and Nabiullina said that may be required. Sinara Investment Bank analyst Sergei Konygin said the lack of forward hawkish guidance meant it was highly likely the key rate had already reached its upper boundary.

Persons: Elvira Nabiullina, Nabiullina, Liam Peach, Dmitry Polevoy, Sergei Konygin, Vladimir Soldatkin, Elena Fabrichnaya, Alexander Marrow, Gareth Jones, Mark Trevelyan, John Stonestreet, Mike Harrison Organizations: Bank, Russia, Bank of Russia, Capital Economics, Reuters, Sinara Investment Bank, Thomson Locations: Russia, Ukraine MOSCOW, Ukraine, Moscow, Locko, London

☆ Russia hikes key rate to 15% in bigger-than-expected rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Russia's central bank raised its key interest rate by a higher than expected 200 basis points to 15% on Friday, hiking borrowing costs for the fourth meeting running in response to a weak rouble and stubborn inflation pressure. "The updated medium-term parameters of fiscal policy assume a slower than expected decline in fiscal stimulus in the years ahead," the bank said. It also acknowledged for the first time that it may not succeed in returning inflation to its 4% target next year, forecasting year-end inflation for 2024 at 4-4.5%. The majority of analysts polled by Reuters had expected a smaller hike to 14%. The rouble leapt to a more than six-week high against the dollar after the decision.

Organizations: Bank, Reuters Locations: Russia, Ukraine

☆ Almost half of Russians say salary does not cover basic spending - survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Evgenia Novozhenina/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsMOSCOW, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The number of Russians who say their salary does not cover basic spending has jumped by 20 percentage points in two years to almost half, a survey by recruiter Headhunter showed, as Moscow diverts record fiscal resources to funding its war in Ukraine. Asked whether their salary was enough to cover basic spending, without taking into account income from second jobs or investments, just one in five Russians surveyed said yes. That is up from 25% in 2021 and 39% in 2022, Headhunter's survey showed. Of the 45% lacking the money for basic spending, more than half said they were at least 20,000 roubles ($212) short per month. The average monthly nominal wage earned by Russians was 71,419 roubles ($756) in July, Rosstat's statistics show.

Persons: Evgenia, Headhunter, Vladimir Putin, Alexander Marrow, Gareth Jones Organizations: U.S ., Russian, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Russia's, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russia, Ukraine

☆ Tumbling rouble claws back ground as central bank to meet
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Putin's economic adviser Maxim Oreshkin earlier said the central bank could ensure that the pace of lending drops to sustainable levels with higher rates. "The central bank has all the tools to normalise the situation in the near future." Asked earlier whether it might make an emergency hike from the current 8.5%, the central bank declined to comment. "The central bank is not fully in control," independent Moscow-based economist Ian Melkumov told Reuters. "The central bank doesn't want to kill the economy and businesses in the same way it had to last year," he said.

Persons: Rouble, Vladimir Putin's, rouble, Putin, Maxim Oreshkin, Oreshkin, Denis Popov, Popov, Matt Vogel, REUTERS Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Vladimir Solovyev, Ivan, Timothy Ash, Ian Melkumov, Alexander Marrow, Marc Jones, Gareth Jones, Philippa Fletcher, Christina Fincher Organizations: TASS, of Russia's, FIM, Moscow News Agency, Handout, REUTERS Central Bank Governor, Popular, Kremlin, Reuters, BlueBay Asset Management, Thomson Locations: MOSCOW, Ukraine, Moscow, Russia, London

Under its budget rule, Russia sells foreign currency from its National Wealth Fund (NWF) to make up for any shortfall in revenue from oil and gas exports, or makes purchases in the event of a surplus. The central bank restarted its own separate interventions this month, selling 2.3 billion roubles' worth of foreign currency a day, something it said it would continue to do. The bank's decision means that from Thursday, daily FX sales will total 2.3 billion roubles, as opposed to net sales of 0.5 billion roubles envisaged previously. The bank said it may defer purchases within the budget rule framework to 2024. "We may see new measures to stabilise the situation on the FX market," the analysts said.

Persons: Elena Fabrichnaya, Alexander Marrow, Darya Korsunskaya, Kevin Liffey, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: of Russia, National Wealth Fund, Bank of, FX, Thomson Locations: Russia, Ukraine MOSCOW, Moscow, London

☆ Rouble weakens to 63 vs dollar as rate decision edges closer
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Alexander Marrow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Markets also are awaiting a flurry of other interest rate decisions this week, including from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The rouble has showed a largely muted reaction to oil price swings in the last week. Volatility has been high as a price cap on Russian oil kicked in. Brent crude oil , a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was down 0.7% at $75.6 a barrel, pushing Russian stock indexes lower. For Russian equities guide seeFor Russian treasury bonds seeReporting by Alexander Marrow; Editing by Kim Coghill, KIrsten DonovanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Russia holds rates at 7.5%, cautions on inflationary effects of mobilisation
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Alexander Marrow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, dressed in black with a dab of floral print, said that the bank wanted to give a neutral signal to the market on rates. INFLATIONInflation, which the central bank targets at 4%, stood at 12.9% as of Oct. 24, according to the economy ministry. The central bank tweaked its year-end inflation forecast to 12-13% from 11-13%. "According to the Bank of Russia's forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will drop to 5.0–7.0% in 2023 to return to 4% in 2024." The central bank improved its GDP forecast for this year to a contraction of 3-3.5% from an expected 4-6% decline previously.

REUTERS/Murad SezerISTANBUL, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Turkish lenders Isbank and Denizbank have suspended use of Russian payment system Mir, the banks said on Monday, following a U.S. crackdown on those accused of helping Moscow skirt sanctions over the war in Ukraine. The suspensions by two of the five Turkish banks that had been using Mir reflect their effort to avoid the financial cross-fire between the West and Russia, as the Turkish government takes a balanced diplomatic stance. In April, he said Russian tourists - critical to Turkey's beleaguered economy - could easily make payments since the Mir system was growing among Turkey's banks. One banker said worries that so-called secondary sanctions could target Turkish banks or firms affected markets. The expanded U.S. sanctions last week targeted the chief executive of the Bank of Russia's National Card Payment System (NSPK), which runs Mir.

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